FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division

Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

491.14 – 433.4

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

521 – 346

Prediction correct · off by 58.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 716.5 ±8.4

2587DiscoBots

Season APEX 124.6Event APEX 79.64Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6800Valor

Season APEX 356Event APEX 222.58Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 188.92Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 739.6 ±8.7

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 60.52Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 222Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 150.88Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2587, 6800, 118

/ 100 compat

Projected

491.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2587, 6800, 118

Auto

87.4 18%

Teleop

260.2 54%

Endgame

136.4 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 4%

Blue · 624, 10340, 3847

/ 100 compat

Projected

433.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 624, 10340, 3847

Auto

80.0 19%

Teleop

257.8 60%

Endgame

89.9 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 4%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.17 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score491.1pts

Blue projected score433.4pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 57.7
Score range: 383–541
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 867 vs event baseline 279.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

716.5Season APEX739.6

87.4Auto80

260.2Teleop257.8

136.4Endgame89.9

115Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	118	70
teleop	238	177
endgame	160	94
foul	5	5
total	521	346

Result

Final score

521 – 346

Prediction correct · off by 58.6 pts

Match videos

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