FIT District Space City @ League City Event #1

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

111.57 – 92.73

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

174 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 36.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 448.7 ±9.8

6377Howdy Bots

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 64.31Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1477Texas Torque

Season APEX 214.2Event APEX 11.5Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7312T3

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 35.76Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 356.4 ±11.2

9181PlatyPirates

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 25.06Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7492Turbo Torque

Season APEX 124.9Event APEX 41.51Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5414Pearadox

Season APEX 180Event APEX 26.16Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6377, 1477, 7312

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6377, 1477, 7312

Auto

28.0 27%

Teleop

49.9 49%

Endgame

24.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9181, 7492, 5414

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9181, 7492, 5414

Auto

17.7 21%

Teleop

34.6 42%

Endgame

31.0 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score111.6pts

Blue projected score92.7pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 18.8
Score range: 69–136
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 277 vs event baseline 134.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

448.7Season APEX356.4

28Auto17.7

49.9Teleop34.6

24.4Endgame31

11Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	22
teleop	74	41
endgame	43	30
foul	25	10
total	174	103

Result

Final score

174 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 36.4 pts

Match videos

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