FIT District Space City @ League City Event #1

Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

295.09 – 166.82

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

238 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 35 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 658.9 ±8.7

127Bluetonium

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 25.85Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 158.21Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 111.03Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 428.2 ±9

4639The RoboSpartans

Season APEX 112Event APEX 90.1Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 69.94Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5417Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 6.78Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 127, 10340, 3847

/ 100 compat

Projected

295.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 127, 10340, 3847

Auto

73.6 25%

Teleop

175.3 60%

Endgame

41.9 14%

Strengths

· 10340 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4639, 118, 5417

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4639, 118, 5417

Auto

42.3 27%

Teleop

78.0 50%

Endgame

35.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.16 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score295.1pts

Blue projected score166.8pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 128.3
Score range: 143–319
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 392 vs event baseline 133.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

658.9Season APEX428.2

73.6Auto42.3

175.3Teleop78

41.9Endgame35.8

0Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	29
teleop	150	61
endgame	19	44
foul	5	20
total	238	154

Result

Final score

238 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 35 pts

Match videos

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