FIT District Space City @ League City Event #1

Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

96.02 – 91.73

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

82 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 20.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 356.4 ±11.2

5414Pearadox

Season APEX 180Event APEX 27.91Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7492Turbo Torque

Season APEX 124.9Event APEX 42.89Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9181PlatyPirates

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 25.22Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 317.2 ±10.4

5261Cyber Shock

Season APEX 82.2Event APEX 23.05Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5892Energy HEROs

Season APEX 101.6Event APEX 34.43Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

324Chips

Season APEX 133.4Event APEX 34.25Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5414, 7492, 9181

/ 100 compat

Projected

96 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5414, 7492, 9181

Auto

15.3 18%

Teleop

37.6 45%

Endgame

31.5 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5261, 5892, 324

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5261, 5892, 324

Auto

18.2 20%

Teleop

49.5 56%

Endgame

21.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score96pts

Blue projected score91.7pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.3
Score range: 68–120
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 146 vs event baseline 131.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

356.4Season APEX317.2

15.3Auto18.2

37.6Teleop49.5

31.5Endgame21.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	31
teleop	23	24
endgame	32	9
foul	0	0
total	82	64

Result

Final score

82 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 20.9 pts

Match videos

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