FIT District Space City @ League City Event #1

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

108.85 – 78.64

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

120 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 15.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 222.1 ±11

7616Cerberus

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 35.77Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10118Robonauts EveryBot

Season APEX 54.9Event APEX 33.95Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6645Alloy Obsession

Season APEX 73Event APEX 39.13Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 161.7 ±12.1

5790Proto-Titans

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 24.34Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5431Titan Robotics

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 34.78Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9289Vikings

Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 19.52Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7616, 10118, 6645

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7616, 10118, 6645

Auto

34.9 33%

Teleop

39.0 36%

Endgame

33.1 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5790, 5431, 9289

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5790, 5431, 9289

Auto

15.1 21%

Teleop

37.9 52%

Endgame

19.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score108.9pts

Blue projected score78.6pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.2
Score range: 55–133
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 178 vs event baseline 132.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

222.1Season APEX161.7

34.9Auto15.1

39Teleop37.9

33.1Endgame19.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	16
teleop	16	30
endgame	14	12
foul	45	0
total	120	58

Result

Final score

120 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 15.9 pts

Match videos

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