FIT District Space City @ League City Event #1

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

186.16 – 92.84

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

104 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 46 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 428.2 ±9

4639The RoboSpartans

Season APEX 112Event APEX 95.65Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5417Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 12.95Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 77.56Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 317.2 ±10.4

5261Cyber Shock

Season APEX 82.2Event APEX 23.66Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5892Energy HEROs

Season APEX 101.6Event APEX 34.39Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

324Chips

Season APEX 133.4Event APEX 34.79Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4639, 5417, 118

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4639, 5417, 118

Auto

43.8 25%

Teleop

89.2 52%

Endgame

39.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5261, 5892, 324

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5261, 5892, 324

Auto

16.0 18%

Teleop

52.4 58%

Endgame

21.7 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.9 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score186.2pts

Blue projected score92.8pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 93.3
Score range: 69–210
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 187 vs event baseline 132.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

428.2Season APEX317.2

43.8Auto16

89.2Teleop52.4

39.2Endgame21.7

17Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	27
teleop	38	34
endgame	26	17
foul	0	5
total	104	83

Result

Final score

104 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 46 pts

Match videos

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