FIT District Space City @ League City Event #1

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

265.31 – 95.56

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

372 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 69.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 602.1 ±9.9

6243Energy NERDs

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 8.45Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 103.34Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 153.52Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 374.5 ±9.8

5414Pearadox

Season APEX 180Event APEX 25.14Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7492Turbo Torque

Season APEX 124.9Event APEX 40.43Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8177Vector

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 29.99Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6243, 3847, 10340

/ 100 compat

Projected

265.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6243, 3847, 10340

Auto

64.2 24%

Teleop

161.2 61%

Endgame

39.7 15%

Strengths

· 10340 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5414, 7492, 8177

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.6 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5414, 7492, 8177

Auto

11.8 14%

Teleop

39.5 46%

Endgame

33.8 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.22 · Blue 0.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score265.3pts

Blue projected score95.6pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 169.8
Score range: 72–289
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 500 vs event baseline 131.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

602.1Season APEX374.5

64.2Auto11.8

161.2Teleop39.5

39.7Endgame33.8

16Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	89	19
teleop	225	62
endgame	58	27
foul	0	20
total	372	128

Result

Final score

372 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 69.6 pts

Match videos

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