FIT District Space City @ League City Event #1

Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

279.89 – 93.28

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

431 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 87.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 658.9 ±8.7

127Bluetonium

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 20.26Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 152.5Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 107.13Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 357.6 ±9.7

5788Eagle Spec Ops

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 11.97Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 71.64Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5417Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 9.67Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 127, 10340, 3847

/ 100 compat

Projected

279.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 127, 10340, 3847

Auto

71.2 26%

Teleop

166.4 60%

Endgame

38.0 14%

Strengths

· 10340 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5788, 118, 5417

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.3 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5788, 118, 5417

Auto

25.0 28%

Teleop

34.4 39%

Endgame

29.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.32 · Blue 0.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score279.9pts

Blue projected score93.3pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 186.6
Score range: 68–305
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 548 vs event baseline 138.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

658.9Season APEX357.6

71.2Auto25

166.4Teleop34.4

38Endgame29

0Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	16
teleop	253	49
endgame	87	52
foul	30	0
total	431	117

Result

Final score

431 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 87.4 pts

Match videos

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