FIT District Space City @ League City Event #1

Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

88 – 119.18

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

123 – 112

Prediction missed · off by 21.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 357.6 ±9.7

5788Eagle Spec Ops

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 9.99Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 70Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5417Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 8.01Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 448.7 ±9.8

6377Howdy Bots

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 67.53Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1477Texas Torque

Season APEX 214.2Event APEX 14.1Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7312T3

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 37.55Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5788, 118, 5417

/ 100 compat

Projected

88 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5788, 118, 5417

Auto

23.9 29%

Teleop

33.5 40%

Endgame

25.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6377, 1477, 7312

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6377, 1477, 7312

Auto

28.2 26%

Teleop

53.1 49%

Endgame

26.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.11 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score88pts

Blue projected score119.2pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31.2
Score range: 63–144
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 235 vs event baseline 138.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

357.6Season APEX448.7

23.9Auto28.2

33.5Teleop53.1

25.8Endgame26.3

43Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	33
teleop	40	57
endgame	47	17
foul	5	5
total	123	112

Result

Final score

123 – 112

Prediction missed · off by 21.1 pts

Match videos

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