FIT District Space City @ League City Event #1

Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

390.01 – 278.9

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

587 – 258

Prediction correct · off by 108.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 747.9 ±9.3

8370Glow With The Flow

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 6.95Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9128ITKAN Robotics

Season APEX 344.8Event APEX 212.41Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6800Valor

Season APEX 356Event APEX 170.65Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 602.1 ±9.9

6243Energy NERDs

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 16.81Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 154.62Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 107.47Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8370, 9128, 6800

/ 100 compat

Projected

390 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8370, 9128, 6800

Auto

81.4 21%

Teleop

238.2 62%

Endgame

63.3 17%

Strengths

· 9128 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6243, 10340, 3847

/ 100 compat

Projected

278.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6243, 10340, 3847

Auto

67.1 24%

Teleop

171.3 61%

Endgame

40.5 15%

Strengths

· 10340 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.03 · Blue 0.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score390pts

Blue projected score278.9pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 111.1
Score range: 255–414
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 845 vs event baseline 134.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

747.9Season APEX602.1

81.4Auto67.1

238.2Teleop171.3

63.3Endgame40.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	112	67
teleop	342	135
endgame	108	56
foul	25	0
total	587	258

Result

Final score

587 – 258

Prediction correct · off by 108.9 pts

Match videos

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