FIT District Space City @ League City Event #1

Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

32.7 – 74.47

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

93 – 30

Prediction missed · off by 52.4 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 212.8 ±10.4

11277ARC

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 5.71Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10118Robonauts EveryBot

Season APEX 54.9Event APEX -9.61Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7616Cerberus

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 36.6Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 181.8 ±12.7

6645Alloy Obsession

Season APEX 73Event APEX 36.6Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6243Energy NERDs

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 6.73Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9181PlatyPirates

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 31.14Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11277, 10118, 7616

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11277, 10118, 7616

Auto

15.2 45%

Teleop

16.6 49%

Endgame

2.2 6%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6645, 6243, 9181

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6645, 6243, 9181

Auto

15.9 22%

Teleop

36.6 50%

Endgame

20.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score32.7pts

Blue projected score74.5pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -41.8
Score range: 11–96
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 123 vs event baseline 119.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

212.8Season APEX181.8

15.2Auto15.9

16.6Teleop36.6

2.2Endgame20.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	10
teleop	27	16
endgame	35	4
foul	0	0
total	93	30

Result

Final score

93 – 30

Prediction missed · off by 52.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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