FIT District Space City @ League City Event #1

Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

99.07 – 166.08

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

69 – 60

Prediction missed · off by 68.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 479.6 ±8.4

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 78.93Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11277ARC

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX -6.57Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5414Pearadox

Season APEX 180Event APEX 26.71Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 262.5 ±11.7

5261Cyber Shock

Season APEX 82.2Event APEX 33.29Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4639The RoboSpartans

Season APEX 112Event APEX 109.58Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9307Spicy Chihuahuas

Season APEX 68.3Event APEX 23.21Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 118, 11277, 5414

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 118, 11277, 5414

Auto

30.1 32%

Teleop

26.6 28%

Endgame

36.9 39%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5261, 4639, 9307

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5261, 4639, 9307

Auto

29.5 18%

Teleop

103.6 64%

Endgame

28.4 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.93 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score99.1pts

Blue projected score166.1pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -67
Score range: 75–190
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 129 vs event baseline 131.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

479.6Season APEX262.5

30.1Auto29.5

26.6Teleop103.6

36.9Endgame28.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	21
teleop	40	12
endgame	16	12
foul	0	15
total	69	60

Result

Final score

69 – 60

Prediction missed · off by 68.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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