FIT District Space City @ League City Event #1

Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

34.84 – 157.97

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

55 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 28.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 320 ±11.1

6243Energy NERDs

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 6.17Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1477Texas Torque

Season APEX 214.2Event APEX 10.2Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9289Vikings

Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 18.47Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 388.2 ±10.5

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 157.12Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8370Glow With The Flow

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX -4.47Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5788Eagle Spec Ops

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 5.32Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6243, 1477, 9289

/ 100 compat

Projected

34.8 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6243, 1477, 9289

Auto

9.0 26%

Teleop

11.8 34%

Endgame

13.9 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10340, 8370, 5788

/ 100 compat

Projected

158 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10340, 8370, 5788

Auto

45.8 30%

Teleop

88.6 57%

Endgame

20.8 13%

Strengths

· 10340 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.64 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score34.8pts

Blue projected score158pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -123.1
Score range: 11–182
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 177 vs event baseline 130.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

320Season APEX388.2

9Auto45.8

11.8Teleop88.6

13.9Endgame20.8

13Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	55
teleop	24	59
endgame	10	8
foul	0	0
total	55	122

Result

Final score

55 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 28.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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