FIT District Space City @ League City Event #1

Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

127.88 – 151.06

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

116 – 197

Prediction correct · off by 28.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 320.7 ±9.8

7616Cerberus

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 35.42Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

127Bluetonium

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 30.2Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6377Howdy Bots

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 62.26Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 418.7 ±11.2

9181PlatyPirates

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 21.49Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 99.59Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7312T3

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 29.98Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7616, 127, 6377

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7616, 127, 6377

Auto

31.7 27%

Teleop

58.4 49%

Endgame

28.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9181, 3847, 7312

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9181, 3847, 7312

Auto

32.2 22%

Teleop

77.1 54%

Endgame

34.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score127.9pts

Blue projected score151.1pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.2
Score range: 105–174
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 313 vs event baseline 130.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

320.7Season APEX418.7

31.7Auto32.2

58.4Teleop77.1

28Endgame34.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	66
teleop	40	99
endgame	34	22
foul	5	10
total	116	197

Result

Final score

116 – 197

Prediction correct · off by 28.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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