FIT District Space City @ League City Event #1

Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

106.64 – 118.69

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

57 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 41 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 362.7 ±11.2

1477Texas Torque

Season APEX 214.2Event APEX 12.59Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9478Robo-Colts HSISL

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX -6.39Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4639The RoboSpartans

Season APEX 112Event APEX 100.44Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 402.2 ±9.7

7492Turbo Torque

Season APEX 124.9Event APEX 38.1Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5788Eagle Spec Ops

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 4.44Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 76.15Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1477, 9478, 4639

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1477, 9478, 4639

Auto

28.0 28%

Teleop

55.4 55%

Endgame

17.5 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7492, 5788, 118

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7492, 5788, 118

Auto

25.8 23%

Teleop

49.4 45%

Endgame

35.6 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score106.6pts

Blue projected score118.7pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12
Score range: 84–142
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 208 vs event baseline 130.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

362.7Season APEX402.2

28Auto25.8

55.4Teleop49.4

17.5Endgame35.6

0Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	23
teleop	19	54
endgame	5	54
foul	5	20
total	57	151

Result

Final score

57 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 41 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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