FIT District Space City @ League City Event #1

Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

115.75 – 28.74

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

154 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 41.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 316.7 ±10.4

5261Cyber Shock

Season APEX 82.2Event APEX 29.27Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7312T3

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 27.4Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6377Howdy Bots

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 59.08Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 206 ±11

6243Energy NERDs

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 3.89Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5892Energy HEROs

Season APEX 101.6Event APEX 32.83Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8370Glow With The Flow

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX -7.98Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5261, 7312, 6377

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5261, 7312, 6377

Auto

21.4 21%

Teleop

56.5 56%

Endgame

22.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6243, 5892, 8370

/ 100 compat

Projected

28.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6243, 5892, 8370

Auto

-0.1 0%

Teleop

21.5 93%

Endgame

1.7 7%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.94 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score115.8pts

Blue projected score28.7pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 87
Score range: 6–139
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 227 vs event baseline 129.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

316.7Season APEX206

21.4Auto-0.1

56.5Teleop21.5

22.8Endgame1.7

0Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	16
teleop	97	34
endgame	30	18
foul	5	5
total	154	73

Result

Final score

154 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 41.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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