FIT District Space City @ League City Event #1

Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

165.59 – 251.38

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

87 – 297

Prediction correct · off by 62.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 342.3 ±10.4

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 90.3Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9181PlatyPirates

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 29.48Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10118Robonauts EveryBot

Season APEX 54.9Event APEX 45.81Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 508.6 ±9.8

9128ITKAN Robotics

Season APEX 344.8Event APEX 193.61Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7616Cerberus

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 29.62Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8177Vector

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 28.15Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 118, 9181, 10118

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 118, 9181, 10118

Auto

45.8 28%

Teleop

65.2 40%

Endgame

51.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9128, 7616, 8177

/ 100 compat

Projected

251.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9128, 7616, 8177

Auto

55.7 23%

Teleop

148.8 60%

Endgame

42.0 17%

Strengths

· 9128 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.89 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score165.6pts

Blue projected score251.4pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -85.8
Score range: 143–274
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 384 vs event baseline 127.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

342.3Season APEX508.6

45.8Auto55.7

65.2Teleop148.8

51.2Endgame42

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	84
teleop	24	128
endgame	28	85
foul	0	0
total	87	297

Result

Final score

87 – 297

Prediction correct · off by 62.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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