FIT District Space City @ League City Event #1

Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

83.53 – 106.28

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

90 – 42

Prediction missed · off by 35.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 208.9 ±12.2

5788Eagle Spec Ops

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 8.75Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6377Howdy Bots

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 58.13Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7115Red Lion Bots

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 16.65Rank 24Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 472.5 ±9.8

1477Texas Torque

Season APEX 214.2Event APEX 18.81Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7492Turbo Torque

Season APEX 124.9Event APEX 44.96Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

324Chips

Season APEX 133.4Event APEX 42.51Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5788, 6377, 7115

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5788, 6377, 7115

Auto

17.0 22%

Teleop

43.6 57%

Endgame

16.3 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1477, 7492, 324

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1477, 7492, 324

Auto

14.4 16%

Teleop

45.5 50%

Endgame

32.0 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score83.5pts

Blue projected score106.3pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.7
Score range: 61–129
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 132 vs event baseline 128.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

208.9Season APEX472.5

17Auto14.4

43.6Teleop45.5

16.3Endgame32

7Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	24
teleop	42	13
endgame	28	5
foul	0	0
total	90	42

Result

Final score

90 – 42

Prediction missed · off by 35.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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