FIT District Space City @ League City Event #1

Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

263.84 – 57.14

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

233 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 20.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 602.1 ±9.9

6243Energy NERDs

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 6.24Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 95.75Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 161.85Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 182.2 ±12.8

7616Cerberus

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 31.44Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9181PlatyPirates

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 29.75Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9478Robo-Colts HSISL

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX -4.05Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6243, 3847, 10340

/ 100 compat

Projected

263.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6243, 3847, 10340

Auto

67.1 26%

Teleop

156.6 60%

Endgame

39.3 15%

Strengths

· 10340 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7616, 9181, 9478

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.1 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7616, 9181, 9478

Auto

12.8 21%

Teleop

20.9 33%

Endgame

28.7 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.3 · Blue 0.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score263.8pts

Blue projected score57.1pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 206.7
Score range: 34–287
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 280 vs event baseline 127.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

602.1Season APEX182.2

67.1Auto12.8

156.6Teleop20.9

39.3Endgame28.7

43Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	32
teleop	143	0
endgame	45	10
foul	0	5
total	233	47

Result

Final score

233 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 20.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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