FIT District Space City @ League City Event #1

Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

51.66 – 85.31

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

31 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 16 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 267.4 ±12.4

5923WildC.A.T.S.

Season APEX 19.1Event APEX 1.04Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5414Pearadox

Season APEX 180Event APEX 28.4Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9307Spicy Chihuahuas

Season APEX 68.3Event APEX 22.22Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 234.4 ±10.5

5431Titan Robotics

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 32.46Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8177Vector

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 29.83Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

127Bluetonium

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 23.02Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5923, 5414, 9307

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5923, 5414, 9307

Auto

8.3 14%

Teleop

31.5 55%

Endgame

17.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5431, 8177, 127

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5431, 8177, 127

Auto

18.0 25%

Teleop

35.9 50%

Endgame

17.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score51.7pts

Blue projected score85.3pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -33.7
Score range: 29–108
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 105 vs event baseline 129.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

267.4Season APEX234.4

8.3Auto18

31.5Teleop35.9

17.8Endgame17.9

2Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	14
teleop	6	45
endgame	12	15
foul	0	0
total	31	74

Result

Final score

31 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 16 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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