FIT District Space City @ League City Event #1

Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

17.95 – 260.23

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

33 – 301

Prediction correct · off by 27.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 128.6 ±13.3

5923WildC.A.T.S.

Season APEX 19.1Event APEX 1.24Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6645Alloy Obsession

Season APEX 73Event APEX 25.81Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9478Robo-Colts HSISL

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX -9.1Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 525.5 ±11.2

6377Howdy Bots

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 54.71Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9307Spicy Chihuahuas

Season APEX 68.3Event APEX 15.57Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9128ITKAN Robotics

Season APEX 344.8Event APEX 189.95Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5923, 6645, 9478

/ 100 compat

Projected

17.9 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5923, 6645, 9478

Auto

0.0 0%

Teleop

14.0 63%

Endgame

8.4 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6377, 9307, 9128

/ 100 compat

Projected

260.2 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6377, 9307, 9128

Auto

60.7 24%

Teleop

138.2 56%

Endgame

50.0 20%

Strengths

· 9128 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.46 · Blue 2.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score17.9pts

Blue projected score260.2pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -242.3
Score range: -5–283
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 334 vs event baseline 128.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

128.6Season APEX525.5

0Auto60.7

14Teleop138.2

8.4Endgame50

42Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	52
teleop	20	237
endgame	5	12
foul	0	0
total	33	301

Result

Final score

33 – 301

Prediction correct · off by 27.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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