FIT District Space City @ League City Event #1

Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

292.68 – 207.21

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

411 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 84.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 558.4 ±9.8

4639The RoboSpartans

Season APEX 112Event APEX 96.44Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9128ITKAN Robotics

Season APEX 344.8Event APEX 176.42Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5892Energy HEROs

Season APEX 101.6Event APEX 19.82Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 430.5 ±11.7

9307Spicy Chihuahuas

Season APEX 68.3Event APEX 22.16Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5790Proto-Titans

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 14.33Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 170.72Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4639, 9128, 5892

/ 100 compat

Projected

292.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4639, 9128, 5892

Auto

70.4 25%

Teleop

162.8 59%

Endgame

43.2 16%

Strengths

· 9128 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9307, 5790, 10340

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9307, 5790, 10340

Auto

54.9 26%

Teleop

121.9 58%

Endgame

32.7 16%

Strengths

· 10340 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.11 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score292.7pts

Blue projected score207.2pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 85.5
Score range: 184–316
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 568 vs event baseline 125.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

558.4Season APEX430.5

70.4Auto54.9

162.8Teleop121.9

43.2Endgame32.7

23Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	56
teleop	281	92
endgame	55	9
foul	0	0
total	411	157

Result

Final score

411 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 84.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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