FIT District Space City @ League City Event #1

Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

29.06 – 269.02

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

19 – 269

Prediction correct · off by 5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 144.5 ±12.7

9478Robo-Colts HSISL

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX -5.98Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6243Energy NERDs

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 4.8Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5431Titan Robotics

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 30.24Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 806.1 ±7.7

6800Valor

Season APEX 356Event APEX 169.13Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 82.87Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1477Texas Torque

Season APEX 214.2Event APEX 17.02Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9478, 6243, 5431

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.1 pts

~0.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9478, 6243, 5431

Auto

6.5 25%

Teleop

7.6 29%

Endgame

12.4 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6800, 118, 1477

/ 100 compat

Projected

269 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6800, 118, 1477

Auto

52.7 20%

Teleop

154.2 58%

Endgame

58.4 22%

Strengths

· 6800 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.38 · Blue 2.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score29.1pts

Blue projected score269pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -240
Score range: 6–292
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 288 vs event baseline 125.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

144.5Season APEX806.1

6.5Auto52.7

7.6Teleop154.2

12.4Endgame58.4

63Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	0	63
teleop	7	156
endgame	12	50
foul	0	0
total	19	269

Result

Final score

19 – 269

Prediction correct · off by 5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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