FIT District Space City @ League City Event #1

Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

77.8 – 126.05

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

48 – 43

Prediction missed · off by 56.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 247.8 ±11.2

9181PlatyPirates

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 28.85Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5261Cyber Shock

Season APEX 82.2Event APEX 26.18Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

127Bluetonium

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 22.77Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 243.4 ±11.7

324Chips

Season APEX 133.4Event APEX 59.21Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10118Robonauts EveryBot

Season APEX 54.9Event APEX 46.59Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7115Red Lion Bots

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 20.25Rank 24Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9181, 5261, 127

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9181, 5261, 127

Auto

22.3 33%

Teleop

35.6 52%

Endgame

10.3 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 324, 10118, 7115

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 324, 10118, 7115

Auto

26.6 22%

Teleop

55.4 46%

Endgame

37.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.07 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score77.8pts

Blue projected score126.1pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -48.2
Score range: 55–149
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 91 vs event baseline 128.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

247.8Season APEX243.4

22.3Auto26.6

35.6Teleop55.4

10.3Endgame37.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	15
teleop	23	21
endgame	12	7
foul	5	0
total	48	43

Result

Final score

48 – 43

Prediction missed · off by 56.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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