FIT District Space City @ League City Event #1

Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

11.82 – 175.48

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

35 – 283

Prediction correct · off by 65.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 201.8 ±11.7

9478Robo-Colts HSISL

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX -8.21Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5892Energy HEROs

Season APEX 101.6Event APEX 19.23Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11277ARC

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 0.8Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 528.2 ±9.9

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 156.95Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9289Vikings

Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 1.39Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5414Pearadox

Season APEX 180Event APEX 17.14Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9478, 5892, 11277

/ 100 compat

Projected

11.8 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9478, 5892, 11277

Auto

6.5 42%

Teleop

10.5 68%

Endgame

-1.6 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10340, 9289, 5414

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.5 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10340, 9289, 5414

Auto

56.9 30%

Teleop

98.3 52%

Endgame

34.5 18%

Strengths

· 10340 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.57 · Blue 2.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score11.8pts

Blue projected score175.5pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -163.7
Score range: -11–198
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 318 vs event baseline 127.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

201.8Season APEX528.2

6.5Auto56.9

10.5Teleop98.3

-1.6Endgame34.5

21Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	64
teleop	2	162
endgame	17	57
foul	0	0
total	35	283

Result

Final score

35 – 283

Prediction correct · off by 65.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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