FIT District Space City @ League City Event #1

Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

58.31 – 113.99

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 17.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 257.1 ±10.5

5892Energy HEROs

Season APEX 101.6Event APEX 22.85Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

127Bluetonium

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 22.74Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5788Eagle Spec Ops

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 12.72Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 338.1 ±10.4

8370Glow With The Flow

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 2.12Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 85.75Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7115Red Lion Bots

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 26.12Rank 24Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5892, 127, 5788

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5892, 127, 5788

Auto

16.5 33%

Teleop

44.0 88%

Endgame

-10.3 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8370, 118, 7115

/ 100 compat

Projected

114 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8370, 118, 7115

Auto

20.9 20%

Teleop

38.3 37%

Endgame

43.7 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score58.3pts

Blue projected score114pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -55.7
Score range: 34–138
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 138 vs event baseline 130.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

257.1Season APEX338.1

16.5Auto20.9

44Teleop38.3

-10.3Endgame43.7

23Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	23
teleop	15	43
endgame	20	21
foul	0	0
total	51	87

Result

Final score

51 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 17.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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