FIT District Space City @ League City Event #1

Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

372.4 – 171.84

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

290 – 219

Prediction correct · off by 64.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 708.2 ±9.3

9128ITKAN Robotics

Season APEX 344.8Event APEX 190.3Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 166.92Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11277ARC

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 15.18Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 469.3 ±11.2

7616Cerberus

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 12.98Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5923WildC.A.T.S.

Season APEX 19.1Event APEX -5.64Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6800Valor

Season APEX 356Event APEX 164.5Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9128, 10340, 11277

/ 100 compat

Projected

372.4 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9128, 10340, 11277

Auto

87.8 24%

Teleop

226.3 61%

Endgame

55.8 15%

Strengths

· 9128 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7616, 5923, 6800

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.8 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7616, 5923, 6800

Auto

43.2 23%

Teleop

109.4 58%

Endgame

36.7 19%

Strengths

· 6800 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.36 · Blue 0.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score372.4pts

Blue projected score171.8pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 200.6
Score range: 149–395
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 509 vs event baseline 126.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

708.2Season APEX469.3

87.8Auto43.2

226.3Teleop109.4

55.8Endgame36.7

16Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	106	20
teleop	130	117
endgame	54	67
foul	0	15
total	290	219

Result

Final score

290 – 219

Prediction correct · off by 64.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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