FIT District Space City @ League City Event #1

Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

82.07 – 125.82

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

145 – 98

Prediction missed · off by 45.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 308.3 ±11

324Chips

Season APEX 133.4Event APEX 43.03Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6377Howdy Bots

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 28.78Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5790Proto-Titans

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 10.26Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 395 ±9.8

8177Vector

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 30.73Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5417Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 8.56Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 86.53Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 324, 6377, 5790

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 324, 6377, 5790

Auto

10.5 12%

Teleop

45.0 52%

Endgame

30.3 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8177, 5417, 3847

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8177, 5417, 3847

Auto

30.3 25%

Teleop

67.2 55%

Endgame

24.7 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score82.1pts

Blue projected score125.8pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -43.7
Score range: 59–149
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 243 vs event baseline 127.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

308.3Season APEX395

10.5Auto30.3

45Teleop67.2

30.3Endgame24.7

4Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	26
teleop	51	55
endgame	18	12
foul	45	5
total	145	98

Result

Final score

145 – 98

Prediction missed · off by 45.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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