FIT District Space City @ League City Event #1

Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

171.23 – 135.29

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

302 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 69.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 406.3 ±12.4

7115Red Lion Bots

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 0.05Rank 24Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9181PlatyPirates

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 23.27Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 147.91Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 181.8 ±12.2

4639The RoboSpartans

Season APEX 112Event APEX 92.59Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5431Titan Robotics

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 43.94Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5923WildC.A.T.S.

Season APEX 19.1Event APEX -1.24Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7115, 9181, 10340

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7115, 9181, 10340

Auto

44.0 24%

Teleop

104.2 57%

Endgame

34.5 19%

Strengths

· 10340 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4639, 5431, 5923

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4639, 5431, 5923

Auto

28.6 25%

Teleop

62.5 54%

Endgame

24.5 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score171.2pts

Blue projected score135.3pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35.9
Score range: 113–193
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 445 vs event baseline 123.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

406.3Season APEX181.8

44Auto28.6

104.2Teleop62.5

34.5Endgame24.5

36Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	33
teleop	172	81
endgame	59	29
foul	0	0
total	302	143

Result

Final score

302 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 69.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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