FIT District Space City @ League City Event #1

Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

37.05 – 32.35

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

22 – 37

Prediction missed · off by 9.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 185.4 ±11

5788Eagle Spec Ops

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 12.74Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5417Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 6.47Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11277ARC

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 17.84Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 153.2 ±11.7

8370Glow With The Flow

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX -0.47Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8177Vector

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 35.52Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9478Robo-Colts HSISL

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX -2.7Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5788, 5417, 11277

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5788, 5417, 11277

Auto

10.0 38%

Teleop

7.0 27%

Endgame

9.1 35%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8370, 8177, 9478

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8370, 8177, 9478

Auto

1.0 5%

Teleop

13.0 69%

Endgame

4.8 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score37.1pts

Blue projected score32.4pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.7
Score range: 9–60
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 59 vs event baseline 126.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

185.4Season APEX153.2

10Auto1

7Teleop13

9.1Endgame4.8

22Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	9
teleop	8	14
endgame	3	14
foul	0	0
total	22	37

Result

Final score

22 – 37

Prediction missed · off by 9.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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