FIT District Space City @ League City Event #1

Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

161.02 – 90.3

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

285 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 72.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 660.9 ±9.3

5414Pearadox

Season APEX 180Event APEX 24.83Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6800Valor

Season APEX 356Event APEX 134.05Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7492Turbo Torque

Season APEX 124.9Event APEX 2.14Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 183 ±12.8

9181PlatyPirates

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 31.02Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6377Howdy Bots

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 53.54Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5923WildC.A.T.S.

Season APEX 19.1Event APEX 5.74Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5414, 6800, 7492

/ 100 compat

Projected

161 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5414, 6800, 7492

Auto

11.1 7%

Teleop

128.4 81%

Endgame

18.5 12%

Strengths

· 6800 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9181, 6377, 5923

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9181, 6377, 5923

Auto

4.2 4%

Teleop

52.2 56%

Endgame

37.2 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.85 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score161pts

Blue projected score90.3pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 70.7
Score range: 69–182
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 355 vs event baseline 119.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

660.9Season APEX183

11.1Auto4.2

128.4Teleop52.2

18.5Endgame37.2

42Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	18
teleop	150	31
endgame	74	21
foul	0	0
total	285	70

Result

Final score

285 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 72.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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