FIT District Space City @ League City Event #1

Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

107.59 – 226.31

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

140 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 33.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 510 ±9.9

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 60.13Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1477Texas Torque

Season APEX 214.2Event APEX 3.38Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5431Titan Robotics

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 44.08Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 539.2 ±9.3

127Bluetonium

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 17.07Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5417Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 17.46Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9128ITKAN Robotics

Season APEX 344.8Event APEX 191.78Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3847, 1477, 5431

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3847, 1477, 5431

Auto

34.0 36%

Teleop

41.8 45%

Endgame

17.7 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 127, 5417, 9128

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 127, 5417, 9128

Auto

43.9 20%

Teleop

146.7 66%

Endgame

30.5 14%

Strengths

· 9128 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.74 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score107.6pts

Blue projected score226.3pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -118.7
Score range: 87–247
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 332 vs event baseline 116.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

510Season APEX539.2

34Auto43.9

41.8Teleop146.7

17.7Endgame30.5

106Consistency114

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	59
teleop	95	86
endgame	21	7
foul	10	40
total	140	192

Result

Final score

140 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 33.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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