FIT District Space City @ League City Event #1

Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

119.74 – 239.05

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

74 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 62.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 387.7 ±9

5261Cyber Shock

Season APEX 82.2Event APEX 19.17Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8177Vector

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 29.02Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 71.55Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 526.2 ±9.8

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 171.59Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5892Energy HEROs

Season APEX 101.6Event APEX 27.9Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7492Turbo Torque

Season APEX 124.9Event APEX 39.56Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5261, 8177, 118

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.7 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5261, 8177, 118

Auto

23.5 20%

Teleop

59.0 51%

Endgame

33.8 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10340, 5892, 7492

/ 100 compat

Projected

239.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10340, 5892, 7492

Auto

53.5 23%

Teleop

137.2 59%

Endgame

42.5 18%

Strengths

· 10340 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.74 · Blue 2.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score119.7pts

Blue projected score239.1pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -119.3
Score range: 93–266
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 233 vs event baseline 148.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

387.7Season APEX526.2

23.5Auto53.5

59Teleop137.2

33.8Endgame42.5

0Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	10
teleop	30	134
endgame	20	10
foul	5	5
total	74	159

Result

Final score

74 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 62.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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