FIT District Space City @ League City Event #1

Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

79.17 – 93.08

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

53 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 18.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 188.4 ±11.7

11277ARC

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 4.67Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7115Red Lion Bots

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 12.97Rank 24Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8177Vector

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 61.53Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 317.9 ±10.4

5892Energy HEROs

Season APEX 101.6Event APEX 38.26Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7312T3

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 9.96Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7616Cerberus

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 44.86Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11277, 7115, 8177

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11277, 7115, 8177

Auto

26.4 36%

Teleop

21.4 29%

Endgame

26.4 36%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5892, 7312, 7616

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5892, 7312, 7616

Auto

30.2 31%

Teleop

44.3 46%

Endgame

21.9 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score79.2pts

Blue projected score93.1pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13.9
Score range: 58–114
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 136 vs event baseline 117.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

188.4Season APEX317.9

26.4Auto30.2

21.4Teleop44.3

26.4Endgame21.9

47Consistency149

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	34
teleop	23	45
endgame	21	4
foul	0	0
total	53	83

Result

Final score

53 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 18.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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