FIT District Space City @ League City Event #1

Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

184.83 – 190.97

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

392 – 141

Prediction missed · off by 128.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 783 ±9.3

9128ITKAN Robotics

Season APEX 344.8Event APEX 164.36Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6800Valor

Season APEX 356Event APEX 79.57Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5261Cyber Shock

Season APEX 82.2Event APEX -59.1Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 204.9 ±12.2

5788Eagle Spec Ops

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 76.03Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4639The RoboSpartans

Season APEX 112Event APEX 76.45Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9181PlatyPirates

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 38.49Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9128, 6800, 5261

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9128, 6800, 5261

Auto

46.1 26%

Teleop

111.7 62%

Endgame

22.2 12%

Strengths

· 9128 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5788, 4639, 9181

/ 100 compat

Projected

191 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5788, 4639, 9181

Auto

39.6 21%

Teleop

113.8 59%

Endgame

38.5 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score184.8pts

Blue projected score191pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6.1
Score range: 165–211
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 533 vs event baseline 108.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

783Season APEX204.9

46.1Auto39.6

111.7Teleop113.8

22.2Endgame38.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	31
teleop	285	67
endgame	33	38
foul	0	5
total	392	141

Result

Final score

392 – 141

Prediction missed · off by 128.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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