FIT District Space City @ League City Event #1

Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

87.4 – 84.72

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

38 – 44

Prediction missed · off by 45.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 370.9 ±10.5

5790Proto-Titans

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 15.41Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1477Texas Torque

Season APEX 214.2Event APEX 10.02Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7616Cerberus

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 61.97Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 333.3 ±10.5

6645Alloy Obsession

Season APEX 73Event APEX 18.99Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5414Pearadox

Season APEX 180Event APEX 37.01Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5417Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 28.72Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5790, 1477, 7616

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5790, 1477, 7616

Auto

20.8 25%

Teleop

38.0 46%

Endgame

23.6 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6645, 5414, 5417

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6645, 5414, 5417

Auto

14.3 17%

Teleop

54.8 66%

Endgame

14.0 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score87.4pts

Blue projected score84.7pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 2.7
Score range: 65–107
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 82 vs event baseline 109.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

370.9Season APEX333.3

20.8Auto14.3

38Teleop54.8

23.6Endgame14

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	12
teleop	12	14
endgame	15	18
foul	0	0
total	38	44

Result

Final score

38 – 44

Prediction missed · off by 45.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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