FIT District Space City @ League City Event #1

Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

19.19 – 90.89

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

136 – 38

Prediction missed · off by 84.9 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 369.1 ±9.9

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 28.35Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

127Bluetonium

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 1.62Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5923WildC.A.T.S.

Season APEX 19.1Event APEX -10.78Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 224.6 ±11

9289Vikings

Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 25.81Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11277ARC

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 5.85Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6377Howdy Bots

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 59.23Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 118, 127, 5923

/ 100 compat

Projected

19.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 118, 127, 5923

Auto

3.7 23%

Teleop

5.9 37%

Endgame

6.3 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9289, 11277, 6377

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9289, 11277, 6377

Auto

20.2 23%

Teleop

42.5 47%

Endgame

27.0 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.96 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score19.2pts

Blue projected score90.9pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -71.7
Score range: -1–111
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 174 vs event baseline 111.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

369.1Season APEX224.6

3.7Auto20.2

5.9Teleop42.5

6.3Endgame27

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	14
teleop	73	21
endgame	40	3
foul	0	0
total	136	38

Result

Final score

136 – 38

Prediction missed · off by 84.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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