FIT District Space City @ League City Event #1

Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

214.65 – 150.48

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

66 – 297

Prediction missed · off by 147.6 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 339.1 ±9.8

5414Pearadox

Season APEX 180Event APEX 96.18Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4639The RoboSpartans

Season APEX 112Event APEX 108.39Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8370Glow With The Flow

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 10.08Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 723.3 ±9.3

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 19.55Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

324Chips

Season APEX 133.4Event APEX 34.75Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9128ITKAN Robotics

Season APEX 344.8Event APEX 96.18Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5414, 4639, 8370

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5414, 4639, 8370

Auto

48.5 23%

Teleop

116.9 56%

Endgame

45.1 21%

Strengths

· 4639 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3847, 324, 9128

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3847, 324, 9128

Auto

23.0 15%

Teleop

99.3 65%

Endgame

29.5 19%

Strengths

· 9128 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score214.7pts

Blue projected score150.5pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 64.2
Score range: 131–234
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 363 vs event baseline 104.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

339.1Season APEX723.3

48.5Auto23

116.9Teleop99.3

45.1Endgame29.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	65
teleop	38	179
endgame	8	53
foul	5	0
total	66	297

Result

Final score

66 – 297

Prediction missed · off by 147.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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