FIT District Space City @ Friendswood Event #2

Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

242.55 – 219.16

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

178 – 217

Prediction missed · off by 33.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 304.3 ±11.6

4587Jersey Voltage

Season APEX 48Event APEX 22.1Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8515Photon

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 91.09Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8576Golden Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 148.6Event APEX 129.36Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 352.2 ±10.4

7616Cerberus

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 19.23Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

324Chips

Season APEX 133.4Event APEX 110.44Rank 7Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2587DiscoBots

Season APEX 124.6Event APEX 89.49Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4587, 8515, 8576

/ 100 compat

Projected

242.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4587, 8515, 8576

Auto

53.8 22%

Teleop

128.9 53%

Endgame

59.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7616, 324, 2587

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7616, 324, 2587

Auto

27.8 13%

Teleop

105.5 51%

Endgame

74.7 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score242.6pts

Blue projected score219.2pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.4
Score range: 188–274
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 395 vs event baseline 169.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

304.3Season APEX352.2

53.8Auto27.8

128.9Teleop105.5

59.3Endgame74.7

67Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	40
teleop	106	101
endgame	36	76
foul	0	0
total	178	217

Result

Final score

178 – 217

Prediction missed · off by 33.4 pts

Match videos

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