FIT District Space City @ Friendswood Event #2

Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

327.6 – 206.52

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

378 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 51.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 547.3 ±8.4

3676RedShift Robotics

Season APEX 66.3Event APEX 31.1Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 140.8Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 155.7Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 379.1 ±9.8

7691TSA All Stars

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 31.52Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5829Awtybots

Season APEX 179.7Event APEX 90.83Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5427Steel Talons

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 84.17Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3676, 3847, 118

/ 100 compat

Projected

327.6 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3676, 3847, 118

Auto

58.6 18%

Teleop

186.5 58%

Endgame

74.7 23%

Strengths

· 118 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 7691, 5829, 5427

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7691, 5829, 5427

Auto

36.2 18%

Teleop

123.2 60%

Endgame

44.6 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.33 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score327.6pts

Blue projected score206.5pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 121.1
Score range: 177–358
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 532 vs event baseline 168.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

547.3Season APEX379.1

58.6Auto36.2

186.5Teleop123.2

74.7Endgame44.6

13Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	33
teleop	221	69
endgame	93	52
foul	0	0
total	378	154

Result

Final score

378 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 51.5 pts

Match videos

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