FIT District Space City @ Friendswood Event #2

Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

193.36 – 160.77

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

194 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 11.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 319.5 ±11

2585Impact

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 55.97Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

457⚙️ The Grease Monkeys ⚙️

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 82.24Rank 20Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3481Bronc Botz

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 55.15Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 321.8 ±11.1

5908Spartans

Season APEX 30.7Event APEX 9.56Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11242Golden Eagle Mechanics

Season APEX 180.1Event APEX 50.84Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9512Horsepower

Season APEX 111Event APEX 100.37Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2585, 457, 3481

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2585, 457, 3481

Auto

31.3 16%

Teleop

106.2 56%

Endgame

52.5 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5908, 11242, 9512

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5908, 11242, 9512

Auto

38.7 24%

Teleop

83.0 51%

Endgame

40.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.95 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score193.4pts

Blue projected score160.8pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 32.6
Score range: 131–223
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 377 vs event baseline 168.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

319.5Season APEX321.8

31.3Auto38.7

106.2Teleop83

52.5Endgame40.7

78Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	41
teleop	106	105
endgame	52	37
foul	15	0
total	194	183

Result

Final score

194 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 11.4 pts

Match videos

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