Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
191.12 – 163.6
58%42%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
332 – 154
Prediction correct · off by 75.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 352.2 ±10.4
Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 9.03Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 133.4Event APEX 101.26Rank 7Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 124.6Event APEX 80.83Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 321.8 ±11.1
Season APEX 30.7Event APEX 9.65Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 180.1Event APEX 52.5Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 111Event APEX 101.45Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 7616, 324, 2587
72
/ 100 compatProjected
191.1 pts
~1.8 RP (district)
Teams: 7616, 324, 2587
Auto
26.8 14%
Teleop
95.9 52%
Endgame
62.6 34%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5908, 11242, 9512
66
/ 100 compatProjected
163.6 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 5908, 11242, 9512
Auto
39.1 24%
Teleop
87.4 53%
Endgame
39.2 24%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.52
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score191.1pts
Blue projected score163.6pts
Red win probability58%
Event bonus sample166alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 55%, blue 63%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 27.5
- Score range
- 134–221
- Upset likelihood
- 42%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
352.2Season APEX321.8
26.8Auto39.1
95.9Teleop87.4
62.6Endgame39.2
132Consistency65
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 31 | 37 |
| teleop | 147 | 68 |
| endgame | 124 | 49 |
| foul | 30 | 0 |
| total | 332 | 154 |
Result
Final score
332 – 154
Prediction correct · off by 75.2 pts
Match videos
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