FIT District Space City @ Friendswood Event #2

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

246.6 – 187.22

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

242 – 235

Prediction correct · off by 26.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 304.3 ±11.6

4587Jersey Voltage

Season APEX 48Event APEX 23.71Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8515Photon

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 92.48Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8576Golden Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 148.6Event APEX 130.41Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 319.5 ±11

2585Impact

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 53.88Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

457⚙️ The Grease Monkeys ⚙️

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 79.64Rank 20Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3481Bronc Botz

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 53.7Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4587, 8515, 8576

/ 100 compat

Projected

246.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4587, 8515, 8576

Auto

58.6 24%

Teleop

119.0 48%

Endgame

68.4 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2585, 457, 3481

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2585, 457, 3481

Auto

30.6 17%

Teleop

103.6 56%

Endgame

49.6 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.05 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score246.6pts

Blue projected score187.2pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 59.4
Score range: 157–277
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 477 vs event baseline 165.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

304.3Season APEX319.5

58.6Auto30.6

119Teleop103.6

68.4Endgame49.6

59Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	33
teleop	179	128
endgame	29	69
foul	0	5
total	242	235

Result

Final score

242 – 235

Prediction correct · off by 26.2 pts

Match videos

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