FIT District Space City @ Friendswood Event #2

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

204.14 – 184.55

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

227 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 25.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 379.1 ±9.8

7691TSA All Stars

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 31.02Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5829Awtybots

Season APEX 179.7Event APEX 89.37Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5427Steel Talons

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 83.75Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 273.2 ±11.7

2882Nuts n' Boltz

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 22.23Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3735VorTX

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 73.26Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

231High Voltage

Season APEX 101.7Event APEX 89.06Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7691, 5829, 5427

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7691, 5829, 5427

Auto

31.1 15%

Teleop

120.1 60%

Endgame

49.7 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2882, 3735, 231

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2882, 3735, 231

Auto

35.2 21%

Teleop

97.5 58%

Endgame

34.5 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score204.1pts

Blue projected score184.6pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 19.6
Score range: 155–234
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 383 vs event baseline 165.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

379.1Season APEX273.2

31.1Auto35.2

120.1Teleop97.5

49.7Endgame34.5

58Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	40
teleop	144	80
endgame	28	26
foul	0	10
total	227	156

Result

Final score

227 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 25.7 pts

Match videos

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