Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
209.08 – 212.3
49%51%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
289 – 232
Prediction missed · off by 49.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 352.2 ±10.4
Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 15.45Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 133.4Event APEX 107.75Rank 7Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 124.6Event APEX 85.88Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 379.1 ±9.8
Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 33.19Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 179.7Event APEX 93.22Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 85.89Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 7616, 324, 2587
73
/ 100 compatProjected
209.1 pts
~1.6 RP (district)
Teams: 7616, 324, 2587
Auto
32.5 16%
Teleop
99.6 49%
Endgame
69.4 34%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 7691, 5829, 5427
74
/ 100 compatProjected
212.3 pts
~1.6 RP (district)
Teams: 7691, 5829, 5427
Auto
37.6 18%
Teleop
120.8 57%
Endgame
52.6 25%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.65
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score209.1pts
Blue projected score212.3pts
Red win probability49%
Event bonus sample166alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 55%, blue 59%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -3.2
- Score range
- 178–243
- Upset likelihood
- 49%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
352.2Season APEX379.1
32.5Auto37.6
99.6Teleop120.8
69.4Endgame52.6
89Consistency71
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 33 | 52 |
| teleop | 160 | 119 |
| endgame | 96 | 61 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 289 | 232 |
Result
Final score
289 – 232
Prediction missed · off by 49.8 pts
Match videos
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