Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
233.59 – 207.7
58%42%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
218 – 244
Prediction missed · off by 25.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 304.3 ±11.6
Season APEX 48Event APEX 19.04Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 88.13Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 148.6Event APEX 126.42Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 379.1 ±9.8
Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 31.63Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 179.7Event APEX 91.77Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 84.3Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4587, 8515, 8576
81
/ 100 compatProjected
233.6 pts
~1.9 RP (district)
Teams: 4587, 8515, 8576
Auto
52.6 23%
Teleop
125.3 55%
Endgame
51.5 22%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 65%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 7691, 5829, 5427
72
/ 100 compatProjected
207.7 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 7691, 5829, 5427
Auto
34.3 17%
Teleop
117.6 57%
Endgame
54.3 26%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 65%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.47
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score233.6pts
Blue projected score207.7pts
Red win probability58%
Event bonus sample166alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 65%, blue 59%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 25.9
- Score range
- 177–265
- Upset likelihood
- 42%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
304.3Season APEX379.1
52.6Auto34.3
125.3Teleop117.6
51.5Endgame54.3
78Consistency70
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 72 | 61 |
| teleop | 111 | 143 |
| endgame | 20 | 40 |
| foul | 15 | 0 |
| total | 218 | 244 |
Result
Final score
218 – 244
Prediction missed · off by 25.9 pts
Match videos
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