Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
336.11 – 219.08
81%19%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
379 – 152
Prediction correct · off by 55 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 547.3 ±8.4
Season APEX 66.3Event APEX 34.05Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 143.66Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 158.4Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 352.2 ±10.4
Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 19.18Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 133.4Event APEX 110.55Rank 7Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 124.6Event APEX 89.35Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3676, 3847, 118
81
/ 100 compatProjected
336.1 pts
~2.3 RP (district)
Teams: 3676, 3847, 118
Auto
59.5 18%
Teleop
192.8 58%
Endgame
77.4 23%
Strengths
- · 118 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 62%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 3%
Blue · 7616, 324, 2587
75
/ 100 compatProjected
219.1 pts
~1.0 RP (district)
Teams: 7616, 324, 2587
Auto
30.0 14%
Teleop
105.3 50%
Endgame
74.7 36%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 62%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 3%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.32 · Blue 0.97
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score336.1pts
Blue projected score219.1pts
Red win probability81%
Event bonus sample166alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 62%, blue 55%
Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 117
- Score range
- 188–367
- Upset likelihood
- 19%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
547.3Season APEX352.2
59.5Auto30
192.8Teleop105.3
77.4Endgame74.7
11Consistency84
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 97 | 49 |
| teleop | 161 | 66 |
| endgame | 61 | 37 |
| foul | 60 | 0 |
| total | 379 | 152 |
Result
Final score
379 – 152
Prediction correct · off by 55 pts
Match videos
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