FIT District Space City @ Friendswood Event #2

Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

231.56 – 183.71

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

244 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 25.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 304.3 ±11.6

4587Jersey Voltage

Season APEX 48Event APEX 18.35Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8515Photon

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 87.39Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8576Golden Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 148.6Event APEX 125.82Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 273.2 ±11.7

2882Nuts n' Boltz

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 21.78Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3735VorTX

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 73.61Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

231High Voltage

Season APEX 101.7Event APEX 88.32Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4587, 8515, 8576

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4587, 8515, 8576

Auto

50.8 22%

Teleop

125.1 54%

Endgame

55.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2882, 3735, 231

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2882, 3735, 231

Auto

36.0 21%

Teleop

101.4 59%

Endgame

33.2 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.99 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score231.6pts

Blue projected score183.7pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 47.8
Score range: 153–263
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 389 vs event baseline 171.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

304.3Season APEX273.2

50.8Auto36

125.1Teleop101.4

55.2Endgame33.2

74Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	28
teleop	121	55
endgame	27	47
foul	30	15
total	244	145

Result

Final score

244 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 25.6 pts

Match videos

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