FIT District Space City @ Friendswood Event #2

Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

197.25 – 180.98

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

232 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 23.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 322.6 ±11.7

324Chips

Season APEX 133.4Event APEX 98.21Rank 7Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2882Nuts n' Boltz

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 20.22Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

457⚙️ The Grease Monkeys ⚙️

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 78.82Rank 20Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 350.5 ±12.4

9307Spicy Chihuahuas

Season APEX 68.3Event APEX 43.82Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7091KnightOwls

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 3.16Rank 31Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 134Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 324, 2882, 457

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 324, 2882, 457

Auto

34.6 19%

Teleop

85.2 46%

Endgame

64.5 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9307, 7091, 3847

/ 100 compat

Projected

181 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9307, 7091, 3847

Auto

32.4 18%

Teleop

106.6 60%

Endgame

38.6 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.81 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score197.3pts

Blue projected score181pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16.3
Score range: 152–226
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 426 vs event baseline 162.1.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

322.6Season APEX350.5

34.6Auto32.4

85.2Teleop106.6

64.5Endgame38.6

75Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	19
teleop	159	97
endgame	45	78
foul	0	0
total	232	194

Result

Final score

232 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 23.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree