FIT District Space City @ Friendswood Event #2

Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

148.95 – 132.94

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

167 – 120

Prediction correct · off by 15.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 233.9 ±12.2

5427Steel Talons

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 84.34Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2585Impact

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 52.57Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5986┌ Iron Fangs ┐

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX 12.04Rank 30Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 182.5 ±12.2

9658Camber

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 28.79Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

231High Voltage

Season APEX 101.7Event APEX 92.06Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5908Spartans

Season APEX 30.7Event APEX 12.09Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5427, 2585, 5986

/ 100 compat

Projected

149 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5427, 2585, 5986

Auto

28.6 19%

Teleop

78.9 53%

Endgame

40.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9658, 231, 5908

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9658, 231, 5908

Auto

23.3 20%

Teleop

78.4 68%

Endgame

12.8 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score149pts

Blue projected score132.9pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16
Score range: 104–178
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 287 vs event baseline 162.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

233.9Season APEX182.5

28.6Auto23.3

78.9Teleop78.4

40.6Endgame12.8

38Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	26
teleop	82	57
endgame	32	37
foul	15	0
total	167	120

Result

Final score

167 – 120

Prediction correct · off by 15.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree